Cliff Lee is a Cy Young Winner and even though he has a good 3.14 ERA in 2009, he is just 7-9 this season with opponents batting .278 (up from .253 last season). In 10,000 season simulations the Phillies were averaging 92.1 wins per season before the trade. They won 92 in 2008. With Cliff Lee likely to start around 12 games for the Phillies he does help the team win more games, but only an average of 0.4 more wins.
With Lee the Phillies improve their chances of making the playoffs by 1 percent. The Phillies have a 7 game lead in the NL East and they did not need Lee to make the playoffs.
AccuScore ran playoff simulations based on our most likely forecasted playoff seedings in the National and American League, with the AL having home field advantage in the World Series. In playoff simulations the Phillies, without Lee, had an 11.8 percent chance of repeating as World Series champs.
With Cliff Lee their chances of repeating improve by 1.8 percentage points. This may not sound like a lot but it is a 15 percent improvement.
| PHILADELPHIA | WINS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN NLCS | WIN WORLD SERIES |
| Before Trade | 92.1 | 84.0% | 88.0% | 26.2% | 11.8% |
| With Cliff Lee | 92.5 | 85.3% | 89.0% | 28.3% | 13.6% |
| Lee Impact | 0.4 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
In key NL playoff match-ups vs. the LA Dodgers (assumes Dodgers with home field advantage) and current NL Central leader, St. Louis (assumes Phillies have home field advantage), Cliff Lee helps the Phillies improve their chances by 2.5 and 2.9 percent.
| PHILLIES IN PLAYOFFS | LAD | STL |
| Before Trade | 42.6% | 52.0% |
| w/ Cliff Lee | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Lee Impact | 2.5% | 2.9% |
No comments:
Post a Comment