Can the Brewers make a run?

The Brewers have been fading in the NL Central. Besides Yovani Gallardo and his 3.09 ERA, the rest of the Brewers starters have a combined ERA of nearly 5.5. The rumor is that the Brewers are after Jarrod Washburn who has quietly had a terrific season going 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA and holding opposing batters to a 0.224 average.

AccuScore ran the rest of the season with Jarrod Washburn who should have around 11 starts with the team. In this relatively short period of time Washburn is helping the Brewers win 1.5 more games indicating he is helping the team win nearly 14% more of their simulations in each of his starts.

The Brewers’ chances of making the playoffs are not great even with Washburn, but their chances do double with him, up to 13.7 percent.

REST OF SEASON	WINS	LOSS	WIN%	WIN DIV%	PLAYOFF%
w/o Washburn	32.1	30.9	51.0%	5.2%	6.6%
with Washburn	33.6	29.4	53.3%	11.3%	13.7%
Washburn Impact	+1.5	-1.5	2.4%	6.1%	7.1%

Cliff Lee's Impact on Philadelphia Phillies

Cliff Lee is a Cy Young Winner and even though he has a good 3.14 ERA in 2009, he is just 7-9 this season with opponents batting .278 (up from .253 last season). In 10,000 season simulations the Phillies were averaging 92.1 wins per season before the trade. They won 92 in 2008. With Cliff Lee likely to start around 12 games for the Phillies he does help the team win more games, but only an average of 0.4 more wins.

With Lee the Phillies improve their chances of making the playoffs by 1 percent. The Phillies have a 7 game lead in the NL East and they did not need Lee to make the playoffs.

AccuScore ran playoff simulations based on our most likely forecasted playoff seedings in the National and American League, with the AL having home field advantage in the World Series. In playoff simulations the Phillies, without Lee, had an 11.8 percent chance of repeating as World Series champs.

With Cliff Lee their chances of repeating improve by 1.8 percentage points. This may not sound like a lot but it is a 15 percent improvement.

PHILADELPHIA	WINS	WIN DIVISION	MAKE PLAYOFFS	WIN NLCS	WIN WORLD SERIES
Before Trade	92.1	84.0%	88.0%	26.2%	11.8%
With Cliff Lee	92.5	85.3%	89.0%	28.3%	13.6%
Lee Impact	0.4	1.3%	1.0%	2.1%	1.8%

In key NL playoff match-ups vs. the LA Dodgers (assumes Dodgers with home field advantage) and current NL Central leader, St. Louis (assumes Phillies have home field advantage), Cliff Lee helps the Phillies improve their chances by 2.5 and 2.9 percent.

PHILLIES IN PLAYOFFS	LAD	STL
Before Trade	42.6%	52.0%
w/ Cliff Lee	45.1%	54.9%
Lee Impact	2.5%	2.9%